決策分析

臺北科技大學 115-1 學期課程，課號 361887。

• 學期：115-1
• 授課教師：梁曉帆
• 學分：3
• 選修
• 上課時段：週二 5、6、7 節

課程大綱

This course provides an overview of the basic concepts of decision theory and their applications on the real-world decision problems. Students will learn about the identification and modeling of decision problems, the modeling and estimation of uncertainties, and the modeling and evaluation of preferences.

課程進度

Module 1 Decision (W1~5) 1: Introduction 2: Elements of decision problems 3: Structuring decisions 4: Making choices 5: Sensitivity analysis Module 2 Uncertainty (W6~8, W9: mid-term exam, W10~11) 1: Probability basics 2: Subjective probability 3: Theoretical probability models 4: Using data 5: Monte Carlo simulation/Value of Information Module 3 Preference (W12~15, W16: final exam) 1: Risk attitudes 2: Utility axioms, paradoxes, and implications 3: Conflicting objectives I 4: Conflicting objectives II

評量方式

Mid-term exam: 25% Final exam: 25% Homework and Participation: 40% Team report of flexible learning: 10%

教材

【遵守智慧財產權觀念，請使用正版教科書，不得使用非法影印教科書】 使用外文原文書：是 Making hard decisions with DeccisionTools (2001) by Clemen and Reilly, Duxbury (雙葉)