未來思考與趨勢前瞻

臺北科技大學 114-2 學期課程，課號 359604。

課程大綱

「Forecasting isn’t prediction.」- Paul Saffo Future Studies & Forecasting will be more and more important skill for every young generation students. What will the future look alike? What is the driving forces pushing us from current to the future? How many pace layers of future arrivals? In this class, we will discuss Stanford consulting prof. Paul Saffo’s Future Studies & Forecasting methods, by – Observing current trends, future event debate, Matrices and Axes of Uncertainty, future mindset developing, etc. Overview Futures Research is a survey course about the methods and tools that professional futurists use to help people anticipate and influence the future. It is a core course in the Futures Studies program. It covers methods and tools used by forecasters in general as well as by professional futurists. It also covers the techniques that futurists use more than others to forecast the future, particularly creating scenarios of the future, and the techniques used by futurists and consultants alike to help people influence the future, particularly visions, strategic plans, and change management programs. Objectives The student will understand and become familiar with: • the framework approach to forecasting • critical thinking and other approaches to challenging assumptions • leading creativity tools and approaches and how they apply to futures • how to develop and evaluate scenarios

課程進度

Week 1 Introduction • Become familiar with course objectives, expectations, and procedures • Become familiar with the learning platform. • Introduce yourself to your classmates. • State of the Art in Strategic Foresight UNIT 1 FRAMEWORK FORECASTING: (Weeks 2 –5) Week 2 Environmental Scanning • Understand an approach to environmental scanning • Practice that approaches and assess how well each we and others are using it Week 3 Research • Understand the futures forecasting process, including frameworks, monitoring, and scanning • Present futures information in a logical order for forecasting alternative futures using the framework process Week 4 Interviews & Questionnaires • List how people find out about other people's information, attitudes, expectations, and preferences for the future. • Understand the differences among those ways, including the advantages and disadvantages of each. • Practice the skills of preparing, administering, analyzing, and drawing inferences from an open-ended interview. • Learn about questionnaire design and construction • Learn about related topics, such as measurement, sampling, and the Delphi survey technique • Practice the skills of preparing, administering, analyzing, and drawing inferences from a structured questionnaire. Week 2 Forecasting • Understand the nature of forecasting, its assumptions, its utility, and its difficulties UNIT 2 CHALLENGING ASSUMPTIONS: (Weeks 6 –7) Week 6 Causal Layered Analysis • Understand and apply the causal layered analysis method • Become familiar with the concept of "depth" in futures work Week 7 Critical Thinking • Learn a process for investigating the support for an inference, such as a forecast • Conduct a critical analysis of a forecast in the published literature UNIT 3 CREATIVITY: (Weeks 8 –9) Week 8 Creativity Approaches • Become acquainted with key concepts, terms, and approaches to creativity Week 9 Creativity Tools • Learn a standard approach to creative problem solving • Become familiar with a variety of creativity techniques • Practice applications of two principal creativity tools UNIT 4 SCENARIOS: (Weeks 10 –12) Week 10 Scenario Theory • Become acquainted with key concepts, terms, and criteria of scenarios Week 11 Scenario Methods • Compare the strengths and weaknesses of various scenario approaches • Learn how to analyze and evaluate scenarios Week 12 Scenario Cases • Acquire an in-depth understanding of a leading practitioners approach to scenarios UNIT 5 CONCLUSION: (Weeks 13 –15) Week 13 Draft Portfolio • Prepare draft portfolio for instructor feedback Week 15 - 18 Final Portfolio • Submit the final portfolio

評量方式

Attendance (4) 10% Major Assignments (2) 20% Midterm report (1). 20% Assignments (4) 20% Final Portfolio 30%

教材

【遵守智慧財產權觀念，請使用正版教科書，不得使用非法影印教科書】 使用外文原文書：是 • Micheal Ray, Creativity in Business • Jerry Glenn & Ted Gordon, Futures Research Methodology V2.0, CD, Washington DC, Millennium Project • Other readings will be available online • Also, there is a requirement to do a synopsis of one scenario book from the list below: o Fahey, Liam & Randall, Robert (eds.). Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios. 1998. o Georgantzas, Nicholas C. & Acar, William. Scenario-driven planning. 1995. o Kahane, Adam. Solving tough problems: An open way of talking, listening, and creating new realities. berrett-koehler, 2004. o Lindgren, Mats & Bandhold, Hans. Scenario planning: The link between future and strategy. 2003. o ManyWorlds. Grasping the future: Comparing scenario planning to other forecasting techniques. 2001. o Ogilvy, Jay. Creating better futures: Scenario planning as a tool for a better tomorrow. 2002. o Ringland, Gill, Scenario planning: Managing for the future. 1998. o Ringland ,Gill. Scenarios in public policy. 2002. o Schwartz, Peter. The art of the long view. 1996. o Van Der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. 1996. o Van Der Heijden, Kees. The sixth sense: Accelerating organisational learning with scenarios. 2002.